OK, first thing. I have no current information from Virgil regarding his plans or intentions to announce either the beta program or the actual availability of Particle Fleet. I have some insight into activity in that area, so I will not participate in this in any way other than to monitor this thread and calculate the results.
That said, here is a chance to see how clear or cloudy your crystal ball is.
Spread bet game on Particle Fleet release date.You may play for either the date that the Particle Fleet beta begins or the date that Particle Fleet is officially announced or for both.
Choose a date: That nominally gives you 500 points.
Choose a window size: for ever day you add to the window size, you are penalized by n (where n is the number of days) raised by .9
If you have a window size of 1, you have 500 points. Eg. February 14th.
If the window is 2 days, then you have 500*.9
^1 or 500*.9 = 450 points. The announcement can then be made 1 day either side of February 14
th, ie, 13, 14 or 15 February.
If your window size is 3 days, then you have 500*.9
^2 or 500*.81 = 405 points. Now the announcement can be made any time between February 12
th to 16
th.
For the number of days in advance of your window start date, you multiply your points by that number of days.
Thus if you have a window size of 1 day (500 points) and you predict it 14 days in advance of release, you have 7,000 points.
If your window size was 3 days, then the release day-3 = 11 days, multiplied by 405 points gets you 4,455 points.
If the announcement takes place outside of the window of your bet, then for every day from your prediction to the actual day of announcement, you lose 100 points per day, multiplied by your window size.
If your post with your prediction has an edited time stamp, meaning you revised your estimate, your bet is invalid, unless there is a quoted copy of your post in the list of bets.
You may make no more than one prediction for each of the two events per day, but you may make as many predictions as there are days between now and the announcement.
The day that Virgil posts the announcement that any version of Particle Fleet is available in any format is the official day of release.
The same spread bet may be made for the start of the beta program. The date of the first post in the beta forum making the beta link available counts as the date for the beta estimate.
All points for all bets are totaled together. So if you make 5 bets, all 5 bets' points will be calculated together.
Your post with prediction should be simple, as follows:
Quote
Bet on Beta/General Availability (choose one)
Date of announcement: state date
Window: Number of days before or after the above date
Here are two
sample bets.
Quote
Bet on Beta Availability
Date of announcement: June 14th, 2011
Window: 10 days.
Quote
Bet on General availability
Date of announcement: August 27th
Window: 1 day
All clarifications and revisions to these rules will follow here:
1. You may make a prediction for both the beta and general availability each every day you choose to do so.
All recorded bets are listed here:
The bets and their potential score are also listed in a Google Docs spreadsheet (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R92jhQhHtudXOMcKDP4g-xiv2aoHu48UmLQUkYjxY6w/edit?usp=sharing)
Quote from: J on January 20, 2016, 03:14:33 PM
Bet on General Availability
Date of announcement: July 1st
Window: 30 days
Quote from: TheLongFellowPLAYER on January 20, 2016, 05:11:52 PM
Bet on General Availability
Announcement: June 3rd
Window: 1 day
Quote from: Killer007lite on January 20, 2016, 05:55:54 PM
Bet on General Availability
Date of announcement: July 20th
Window: 10 days
Quote from: TheLongFellowPLAYER on January 21, 2016, 09:14:02 AM
Bet on general availability
July 9
Window: 1 day
Quote from: TheLongFellowPLAYER on January 21, 2016, 12:53:16 PM
Bet on beta release
March 15th
Window: 1 day
Quote from: TheLongFellowPLAYER on January 22, 2016, 09:01:43 PM
Bet on general availability
July 18, 2016
Window: 1 day
Quote from: TheLongFellowPLAYER on January 22, 2016, 09:02:57 PM
Bet on beta release
March 18
Window: 1 day
Quote from: TheLongFellowPLAYER on January 23, 2016, 11:48:23 AM
Bet on general release
May 15
Window: 1 day
Quote from: TheLongFellowPLAYER on January 23, 2016, 11:49:02 AM
Bet on Beta release
April 15
Window: 1 day
Quote from: TheLongFellowPLAYER on January 24, 2016, 04:42:56 PM
Bet on general availability
May 27
Window: 1 day
Quote from: TheLongFellowPLAYER on January 24, 2016, 04:43:45 PM
Bet on beta release
April 27
Window: 1 day
Quote from: TheLongFellowPLAYER on January 25, 2016, 05:18:33 PM
Bet on general availability
June 24
Window: 1 day
Quote from: TheLongFellowPLAYER on January 25, 2016, 05:19:15 PM
Bet on beta release
May 24
Window: 1 day
Quote from: mzimmer74 on January 26, 2016, 07:33:45 PM
Bet on general availability
July 4th
Window: 3 days
Quote from: TheLongFellowPLAYER on January 26, 2016, 09:08:23 PM
Bet on general availability
May 18
Window: 1 day
Quote from: TheLongFellowPLAYER on January 26, 2016, 09:08:57 PM
Bet on Beta release
March 7
Window: 1 day
Quote from: Qwerty Quazo on January 24, 2016, 11:00:09 AM
Bet on general availability
May 27th
Window: 3 days
Bet on General Availability
Date of announcement: July 1st
Window: 30 days
So if you know your bet is wrong and nobody has quoted it, you can just edit it to invalidate your guess?
Can we make a guess for both general and beta availability each day or only one per day?
Quote from: J on January 20, 2016, 03:14:33 PM
So if you know your bet is wrong and nobody has quoted it, you can just edit it to invalidate your guess?
Can we make a guess for both general and beta availability each day or only one per day?
Sure, edit at any time (before I copy it) and it's not valid for entry. :)
You can ofc guess for both on same day.
Bet on General Availability
Announcement: June 3rd
Window: 1 day
Bet on General Availability
Date of announcement: July 20th
Window: 10 days
Bet on general availability
July 9
Window: 1 day
Bet on beta release
March 15th
Window: 1 day
im going to do something stupid and... well.
I guess the non-beta release is between today and 1/21/2018 (yes, 2 full years)
thats 500*.9^730. or 500*3.9539E-34. or 1.976978E-31
E-31 is Ten Nonillionth
for comparison, the scale goes billionth, trillionth, quadrillionth, quintillionth, hexillionth, heptillionth, octillionth, nonillionth, each one 100 times smaller than the last
so basically, im guaranteed to have greater than 0 points!
(also, spell check doesnt recognize any of those as words after trillionth)
Quote from: cooltv27 on January 21, 2016, 05:11:48 PM
im going to do something stupid and... well.
And lucky me, I don't have to accept your bet since it's not in the required format. :)
I did, however try to simulate a bet such as you indicate, and the winning value would be zero.
Bet on general availability
July 18, 2016
Window: 1 day
Bet on beta release
March 18
Window: 1 day
Bet on general release
May 15
Window: 1 day
Bet on Beta release
April 15
Window: 1 day
Bet on general availability
May 27th
Window: 3 days
Bet on general availability
May 27
Window: 1 day
Bet on beta release
April 27
Window: 1 day
Bet on general availability
June 24
Window: 1 day
Bet on beta release
May 24
Window: 1 day
Bet on general availability
July 4th
Window: 3 days
Bet on general availability
May 18
Window: 1 day
Bet on Beta release
March 7
Window: 1 day
Bet on general availability
October 15
Window: 1 day
Bet on beta release
May 1
Window: 1 day
Bet on general availability
March 28
Window: 1 day
Creeper World 3 Steam Release date :D
Bet on general availability
July 29
Window: 1 day
Bet on beta release
May 28
Window: 1 day
Bet 1: beta release
October (29-31) 2016 window
Bet 2: release on this site and also trial version released
November (23-27) 2016 window
Bet 3: release on steam and the "editor, colonial space, everything on main menu unlocked" release
Christmas Day 2016 December 25
Bet 1: Beta Release
March 3
Window: 1 day
((would be a great b-day present :P))
Bet 2: General Availability
April 1
Window: 10 days
((what a "prank" that'd be eh?))
Quote from: hbarudi on February 13, 2016, 01:16:35 AM
Bet 1: beta release
October (29-31) 2016 window
Bet 2: release on this site and also trial version released
November (23-27) 2016 window
Bet 3: release on steam and the "editor, colonial space, everything on main menu unlocked" release
Christmas Day 2016 December 25
Afraid I can't accept this bet as it is not in the prescribed format.
The first bets - mostly on the availability of the beta release, has started to expire and some players are now losing points. Additional bets can still be submitted.
03 June 2016 - Early Access
01 July 2016 - Release
Window: +2 day
*i hope ;D*
How many points do I get if I predict that the beta/early access will never come, and instead it will just go straight to full release, and I'm right?
Quote from: Ninja on March 25, 2016, 01:57:12 PM
How many points do I get if I predict that the beta/early access will never come, and instead it will just go straight to full release, and I'm right?
Ask instead how many points you will lose if you're wrong. :)
Quote from: Karsten75 on March 25, 2016, 05:17:06 PM
Quote from: Ninja on March 25, 2016, 01:57:12 PM
How many points do I get if I predict that the beta/early access will never come, and instead it will just go straight to full release, and I'm right?
Ask instead how many points you will lose if you're wrong. :)
I've never been much for philosophy, though I do get into it on a more surface level.
So, I don't get any points if I predict that beta will never come out and I'm right?
PS:
Bet on general availability: July 7, 2016
Window of 1 day (assuming that means it has to come out on July 7 for me to be right)
Quote from: Ninja on March 25, 2016, 01:57:12 PM
How many points do I get if I predict that the beta/early access will never come, and instead it will just go straight to full release, and I'm right?
Having thought about it some more. I guess we could structure a bet. Say 500 points per day between the day the bet is made and the day the game ships in general availability. Penalty points are 500 per day for every day the game is in beta or early access up to the general availability release. You either win the positive points or you lose penalty points. No offset between the two.
It's not a safe bet, though.
I'll offtopic a bit, as you guys already do so :P
There's also a matter of definition of beta. I think friends and family beta already started, as in the last video we've seen results posted by ppl other than virgil.
Quote from: Fireball14 on March 23, 2016, 10:07:41 AM
03 June 2016 - Early Access
01 July 2016 - Release
Window: +2 day
*i hope ;D*
This bet was invalidated because an edit was made to the entry. Rules say you may not edit anything.
All bets above this accepted or rejected. Further bets can be placed. This post is merely a placeholder.
Please check your bets for correctness in the Google Docs spreadsheet (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R92jhQhHtudXOMcKDP4g-xiv2aoHu48UmLQUkYjxY6w/edit?usp=sharing) and report any errors/omissions.
Quote from: Karsten75 on March 30, 2016, 05:39:28 PM
All bets above this accepted or rejected. Further bets can be placed. This post is merely a placeholder.
Please check your bets for correctness in the Google Docs spreadsheet (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R92jhQhHtudXOMcKDP4g-xiv2aoHu48UmLQUkYjxY6w/edit?usp=sharing) and report any errors/omissions.
So my bet was rejected?
I don't mind if that's the case, just want to make sure you didn't miss it.
Quote from: Ninja on March 30, 2016, 10:28:49 PM
So my bet was rejected?
I don't mind if that's the case, just want to make sure you didn't miss it.
Sorry, I missed it. It's now included and accepted. :)
The videos I've seen make this look a lot like CW2. What I'm worried about, is that the aspect of Creeper World will be destroyed if this continues.
This game doesn't even really look like Creeper World Game 4 when it comes to the enemy type. It's just saddening.
Perhaps (near-certainly) it is not meant to?
I think that by CW3 there is not a lot more that Creeper can do, given CRPL, without changing utterly.
Particles is a new concept, and is rather different.
Quote from: GoodMorning on April 04, 2016, 07:54:33 PM
Perhaps it is not meant to?
I think that by CW3 there is not a lot more that Creeper can do, given CRPL, without changing utterly.
Particles is a new concept, and is rather different.
Also, it is not creeper world 4.
September 20th, 7 days
As to not void my previous post via edit, I wish to clarify that I'm talking about the official release, not the beta.
Quote from: Karsten75 on March 30, 2016, 05:38:43 PM
This bet was invalidated because an edit was made to the entry. Rules say you may not edit anything.
Ok, can i just copy my post?
03 June 2016 - Early Access
01 July 2016 - Release
Window: +2 day
It took me a while to understand how points are calculated. Here's how I understand them (from looking at the spreadsheet). Do I have it right?
These are the variables which are taken into account:
- date bet made, the day you posted the guess in this thread
- guess date, the day you think the announcement will happen
- window in days, the days before or after your guess where you will gain points
- announcement date, the real date of the announcement
The formulas for calculating the points from a bet are:
If the announcement
is within the window,
500 * (0.9
window in days) * ((date bet made - guess date) - window in days)
If the announcement
is not within the window,
-100*(abs(guess date - announcement date) - window in days)*(window in days)
If the above post is correct, here's a Google Sheet (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z1T9Pcqz_j7dXgMEzCz6tIUm0EC4wog5FFeyx8yIcco/edit?usp=sharing) you can use to calculate the best bet you can make with the estimates you have.
The sheet makes the following assumptions:
- You have an estimate for the last day there won't be an announcement. (e.g. there won't be an announcement within 7 days)
- You have an estimate for the last day there might be an announcement. (e.g. there will be an annoucement within 30 days)
- The difference between those two days is less than 100 days.
- You think each day in this range has an equal chance of being the date of the announcement.
- You don't intend to use a window of more than 2 months.
To use it
- You should make your own copy (File -> Make a copy...) and edit the "Before First Day" and "Last Day" fields.
- If you think the announcement will definitely happen later than a week from now, but definitely by the next 30 days, then you should set "Before First Day" to 7 and "Last Day" to 30. It will take a few seconds for the chart to update.
- The "Max Possible" field will now show the maximum expected return you can get by placing a bet today.
- Find the cell with the largest value. Cells with values greater than 0 are green. Start from any green cell and look at the eight adjacent. If any are greater, look at that cell. If not, you should be at the cell with the same value as "Max Possible"
- The best bet you can make today is (Before First Day + Guess) days in the future, with a window* of (Window). Note that the first column is the number of days after the last day you think there won't be an announcement, and row 2 is your window.
*Note that a guess with a window of 1 is just the single day of the guess, and a window of 10 corresponds to the day of the guess along with the 9 days before and the 9 days after it.
General availability
15. August
15 day window
Karsten, could you clarify for me what the beginning of beta means, exactly? Or Early Access? Like, what specific conditions have to be met for it to be considered Beta/Early Access?
Quote from: Beason4251 on April 07, 2016, 12:14:08 AM
It took me a while to understand how points are calculated. Here's how I understand them (from looking at the spreadsheet). Do I have it right?
I don't exactly recall the formulas - they're available in the spreadsheet. :)
Intent was to penalize overly large spread date bets and reward long-term accuracy. Making multiple bets would lead to sure ruin. :)
Quote from: Ninja on April 08, 2016, 01:09:00 PM
Karsten, could you clarify for me what the beginning of beta means, exactly? Or Early Access? Like, what specific conditions have to be met for it to be considered Beta/Early Access?
When either an invitation to participate in a bet program is made, or when the game becomes available on Steam as Early Access. Neither may happen, I don't know what Virgil is planning, exactly.
Bet on general release
July 14th
Window: 1 day
Bet on General Release
June 14th
window 10 days
All bets above this accepted or rejected. Further bets can be placed. This post is merely a placeholder.
Please check your bets for correctness in the Google Docs spreadsheet (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R92jhQhHtudXOMcKDP4g-xiv2aoHu48UmLQUkYjxY6w/edit?usp=sharing) and report any errors/omissions.
Bet on General Release
July 5th
Window: 3 days
September 29th ::)
I love how I'm the only person to guess anywhere close to the release date XD. I guessed the date off of CW3's development cycle, and it worked beautifully.
Sept 29 is a placeholder date on steam... and a goal. But we all know how goals work.... :)
Quote from: virgilw on July 10, 2016, 09:13:20 AM
Sept 29 is a placeholder date on steam... and a goal. But we all know how goals work.... :)
I'd be thrilled if it got released later than that if that meant a more complete and stable game. Deadlines have turned the best of ideas into the the worst of games (read: sonic 06, sonic boom, ect.). The hype train is never derailing, so if you feel like you wouldn't be satisfied with the game if you released it on the 29th of september, then it's not the end of the world. If you can make the deadline, great! If you can't then that's fine too.
P.S. as soon as I saw your post, I wishlisted the game on steam. Chalk up one for the wishlist conversion numbers already, you've got my money in the bank :)
Quote from: virgilw on July 10, 2016, 09:13:20 AM
Sept 29 is a placeholder date on steam... and a goal. But we all know how goals work.... :)
Douglas Adams once wrote:
"I love deadlines. I love the whooshing noise they make as they go by." (http://http://www.goodreads.com/quotes/1398-i-love-deadlines-i-love-the-whooshing-noise-they-make)
::)
QuoteI refuse to answer that question, on the grounds that I don't know that answer.