Predict the release of Particle Fleet

[Karsten75]

OK, first thing. I have no current information from Virgil regarding his plans or intentions to announce either the beta program or the actual availability of Particle Fleet. I have some insight into activity in that area, so I will not participate in this in any way other than to monitor this thread and calculate the results.

That said, here is a chance to see how clear or cloudy your crystal ball is.

Spread bet game on Particle Fleet release date.

You may play for either the date that the Particle Fleet beta begins or the date that Particle Fleet is officially announced or for both.

Choose a date: That nominally gives you 500 points.

Choose a window size: for ever day you add to the window size, you are penalized by n (where n is the number of days) raised by .9

If you have a window size of 1, you have 500 points. Eg. February 14th.

If the window is 2 days, then you have 500*.9^{^1} or 500*.9 = 450 points. The announcement can then be made 1 day either side of February 14^th, ie, 13, 14 or 15 February.

If your window size is 3 days, then you have 500*.9^{^2} or 500*.81 = 405 points. Now the announcement can be made any time between February 12^th to 16^th.

For the number of days in advance of your window start date, you multiply your points by that number of days.

Thus if you have a window size of 1 day (500 points) and you predict it 14 days in advance of release, you have 7,000 points.
If your window size was 3 days, then the release day-3 = 11 days, multiplied by 405 points gets you 4,455 points.

If the announcement takes place outside of the window of your bet, then for every day from your prediction to the actual day of announcement, you lose 100 points per day, multiplied by your window size.

If your post with your prediction has an edited time stamp, meaning you revised your estimate, your bet is invalid, unless there is a quoted copy of your post in the list of bets.

You may make no more than one prediction for each of the two events per day, but you may make as many predictions as there are days between now and the announcement.

The day that Virgil posts the announcement that any version of Particle Fleet is available in any format is the official day of release.

The same spread bet may be made for the start of the beta program. The date of the first post in the beta forum making the beta link available counts as the date for the beta estimate.

All points for all bets are totaled together. So if you make 5 bets, all 5 bets' points will be calculated together.

Your post with prediction should be simple, as follows:

Bet on Beta/General Availability (choose one)

Date of announcement:  state date

Window:  Number of days before or after the above date

Here are two sample bets.

Bet on Beta Availability

Date of announcement:  June 14th, 2011

Window:  10 days.

Bet on General availability

Date of announcement:  August 27th

Window:  1 day

All clarifications and revisions to these rules will follow here:

1. You may make a prediction for both the beta and general availability each every day you choose to do so.

[Karsten75]

All recorded bets are listed here:

The bets and their potential score are also listed in a Google Docs spreadsheet

Bet on General Availability
Date of announcement: July 1st
Window: 30 days

Bet on General Availability
Announcement: June 3rd
Window: 1 day

Bet on General Availability
Date of announcement: July 20th
Window: 10 days

Bet on general availability
July 9
Window: 1 day

Bet on beta release
March 15th
Window: 1 day

Bet on general availability
July 18, 2016
Window: 1 day

Bet on beta release
March 18
Window: 1 day

Bet on general release
May 15
Window: 1 day

Bet on Beta release
April 15
Window: 1 day

Bet on general availability
May 27
Window: 1 day

Bet on beta release
April 27
Window: 1 day

Bet on general availability
June 24
Window: 1 day

Bet on beta release
May 24
Window: 1 day

Bet on general availability
July 4th
Window: 3 days

Bet on general availability
May 18
Window: 1 day

Bet on Beta release
March 7
Window: 1 day

Bet on general availability
May 27th
Window: 3 days

[J]

Bet on General Availability
Date of announcement: July 1st
Window: 30 days

So if you know your bet is wrong and nobody has quoted it, you can just edit it to invalidate your guess?
Can we make a guess for both general and beta availability each day or only one per day?

[Karsten75]

So if you know your bet is wrong and nobody has quoted it, you can just edit it to invalidate your guess?
Can we make a guess for both general and beta availability each day or only one per day?

Sure, edit at any time (before I copy it) and it's not valid for entry. :)

You can ofc guess for both on same day.

[TLFP]

Bet on General Availability
Announcement: June 3rd
Window: 1 day 

[Killer007lite]

Bet on General Availability
Date of announcement: July 20th
Window: 10 days

[TLFP]

Bet on general availability
July 9
Window: 1 day

[TLFP]

Bet on beta release
March 15th
Window: 1 day

[cooltv27]

im going to do something stupid and... well.
I guess the non-beta release is between today and 1/21/2018 (yes, 2 full years)
thats 500*.9^730. or 500*3.9539E-34. or 1.976978E-31

E-31 is Ten Nonillionth
for comparison, the scale goes billionth, trillionth, quadrillionth, quintillionth, hexillionth, heptillionth, octillionth, nonillionth, each one 100 times smaller than the last
so basically, im guaranteed to have greater than 0 points!

(also, spell check doesnt recognize any of those as words after trillionth)

[Karsten75]

im going to do something stupid and... well.

And lucky me, I don't have to accept your bet since it's not in the required format. :) 


I did, however try to simulate a bet such as you indicate, and the winning value would be zero.

[TLFP]

Bet on general availability
July 18, 2016
Window: 1 day

[TLFP]

Bet on beta release
March 18
Window: 1 day

[TLFP]

Bet on general release
May 15
Window: 1 day

[TLFP]

Bet on Beta release
April 15
Window: 1 day

[Qwerty Quazo]

Bet on general availability
May 27th
Window: 3 days