Predict the release of Particle Fleet

[SuperTerminator]

As to not void my previous post via edit, I wish to clarify that I'm talking about the official release, not the beta.

[Fireball14]

This bet was invalidated because an edit was made to the entry. Rules say you may not edit anything.

Ok, can i just copy my post?

03 June 2016 - Early Access
01 July 2016 - Release
Window: +2 day

[Beason4251]

It took me a while to understand how points are calculated. Here's how I understand them (from looking at the spreadsheet). Do I have it right?

These are the variables which are taken into account:

• date bet made, the day you posted the guess in this thread
• guess date, the day you think the announcement will happen
• window in days, the days before or after your guess where you will gain points
• announcement date, the real date of the announcement

The formulas for calculating the points from a bet are:

If the announcement is within the window,
500 * (0.9^{window in days}) * ((date bet made - guess date) - window in days)

If the announcement is not within the window,
-100*(abs(guess date - announcement date) - window in days)*(window in days)

[Beason4251]

If the above post is correct, here's a Google Sheet you can use to calculate the best bet you can make with the estimates you have.

The sheet makes the following assumptions:

• You have an estimate for the last day there won't be an announcement. (e.g. there won't be an announcement within 7 days)
• You have an estimate for the last day there might be an announcement. (e.g. there will be an annoucement within 30 days)
• The difference between those two days is less than 100 days.
• You think each day in this range has an equal chance of being the date of the announcement.
• You don't intend to use a window of more than 2 months.

To use it

• You should make your own copy (File -> Make a copy...) and edit the "Before First Day" and "Last Day" fields.
• If you think the announcement will definitely happen later than a week from now, but definitely by the next 30 days, then you should set "Before First Day" to 7 and "Last Day" to 30. It will take a few seconds for the chart to update.
• The "Max Possible" field will now show the maximum expected return you can get by placing a bet today.
• Find the cell with the largest value. Cells with values greater than 0 are green. Start from any green cell and look at the eight adjacent. If any are greater, look at that cell. If not, you should be at the cell with the same value as "Max Possible"
• The best bet you can make today is (Before First Day + Guess) days in the future, with a window* of (Window). Note that the first column is the number of days after the last day you think there won't be an announcement, and row 2 is your window.

*Note that a guess with a window of 1 is just the single day of the guess, and a window of 10 corresponds to the day of the guess along with the 9 days before and the 9 days after it.

[Vanguard]

General availability
15. August
15 day window

[Ninja]

Karsten, could you clarify for me what the beginning of beta means, exactly? Or Early Access? Like, what specific conditions have to be met for it to be considered Beta/Early Access?

[Karsten75]

It took me a while to understand how points are calculated. Here's how I understand them (from looking at the spreadsheet). Do I have it right?

I don't exactly recall the formulas - they're available in the spreadsheet. :)

Intent was to penalize overly large spread date bets and reward long-term accuracy. Making multiple bets would lead to sure ruin. :)

Karsten, could you clarify for me what the beginning of beta means, exactly? Or Early Access? Like, what specific conditions have to be met for it to be considered Beta/Early Access?

When either an invitation to participate in a bet program is made, or when the game becomes available on Steam as Early Access. Neither may happen, I don't know what Virgil is planning, exactly.

[Shockblast DX]

Bet on general release
July 14th
Window: 1 day

[17gamer]

Bet on General Release
June 14th
window 10 days

[Karsten75]

All bets above this accepted or rejected. Further bets can be placed. This post is merely a placeholder.
Please check your bets for correctness in the Google Docs spreadsheet and report any errors/omissions.

[Nicant]

Bet on General Release
July 5th
Window: 3 days

[Blue Dwarf]

September 29th  ::)

[Karsten75]

September 29th  ::)

Ha ha...

[SuperTerminator]

I love how I'm the only person to guess anywhere close to the release date XD. I guessed the date off of CW3's development cycle, and it worked beautifully.

[knucracker]

Sept 29 is a placeholder date on steam... and a goal.  But we all know how goals work.... :)